Biggest Riser
Morez Johnson Jr.
expected #12 · drafted #9 by DAL
↑ 3 spots ahead of consensus
2026 NBA Draft · Recap
Board vs. Reality
Went to chalk
29/ 30
picks landed within their consensus range — 97% of the board
Ranked vs. Drafted
Every prospect: where the consensus ranked him against where he actually went. On the line, the field nailed it; above it he rose, below it he fell. Hover any face for the details.
- Riser — drafted ahead of expectation
- Faller — drafted later than expected
- On the board — went about as expected
- Hover a face for name, position, and expected vs. actual slot.
Pick by Pick
#2
range 1–4
-1
#3
range 1–3
-1
#1
range 1–3
+2
#4
range 3–5
0
#5
range 5–12
0
#6
range 4–17
0
#11
range 6–26
-4
#7
range 6–15
+1
#12
range 11–19
↑ 3
#9
range 7–16
+1
#10
range 7–17
+1
#8
range 5–13
+4
#22
range 10–38
-9
#18
range 13–23
-4
#19
range 15–24
-4
#14
range 8–25
+2
#13
range 6–23
+4
#20
range 12–28
-2
#21
range 9–27
-2
#17
range 9–27
+3
#23
range 16–39
-2
#16
range 6–37
+6
#25
range 19–34
-2
#15
range 14–26
+9
#32
range 17–48
-7
#24
range 21–32
+2
#29
range 24–36
-2
#26
range 21–35
+2
#35
range 29–39
-6
#28
range 18–40
+2
Risers
Drafted furthest ahead of their consensus range.
↑ 3
Fallers
Drafted furthest past their consensus range.
No notable fallers yet.
How Predictable Was Each Tier?
Share of picks in each range that landed within their consensus range. The top is chalk; the field spreads out as the draft goes on.
Top 5picks 1–5
100%
Lotterypicks 6–14
89%
Mid 1stpicks 15–30
100%
Which Boards Read the Room?
Each board scored on how closely its order matched the real thing (order-match, 0–100; 50 = no better than chance).
🎯
Closest board of 2026
No Ceilings
25 of 30 picks within five slots
96
order match
Blending every board scored 96 — ahead of 4 of 7 individual analyst boards.
Order-match = rank correlation between a board's order and the actual draft order, scaled 0–100. Boards sharing fewer than five drafted players are omitted; the consensus is shown as a benchmark, not ranked against analysts.
Measured against the pre-draft consensus blend. Round 1 tonight, Round 2 tomorrow. See the consensus board →