2026 NBA Draft · Recap

Board vs. Reality

Biggest Riser

Tyler Bilodeau

expected #70 · drafted #43 by TBD

↑ 27 spots ahead of consensus

Biggest Faller

Henri Veesaar

expected #30 · drafted #52 by TBD

↓ 22 spots past consensus

Went to chalk

50/ 57

picks landed within their consensus range — 88% of the board

Ranked vs. Drafted

Every prospect: where the consensus ranked him against where he actually went. On the line, the field nailed it; above it he rose, below it he fell. Hover any face for the details.

11202040406060Consensus rank →Actual pick →Caleb Wilson — expected #4, drafted #4Keaton Wagler — expected #5, drafted #5Mikel Brown Jr. — expected #6, drafted #6Ryan Conwell — expected #37, drafted #37AJ Dybantsa — expected #2, drafted #1Darryn Peterson — expected #3, drafted #2Cameron Boozer — expected #1, drafted #3Darius Acuff Jr. — expected #11, drafted #7Kingston Flemings — expected #7, drafted #8Morez Johnson Jr. — expected #12, drafted #9Brayden Burries — expected #9, drafted #10Yaxel Lendeborg — expected #10, drafted #11Aday Mara — expected #8, drafted #12Nate Ament — expected #22, drafted #13Hannes Steinbach — expected #18, drafted #14Dailyn Swain — expected #19, drafted #15Bennett Stirtz — expected #14, drafted #16Ebuka Okorie — expected #13, drafted #17Christian Anderson — expected #20, drafted #18Allen Graves — expected #21, drafted #19Jayden Quaintance — expected #17, drafted #20Karim Lopez — expected #23, drafted #21Labaron Philon — expected #16, drafted #22Zuby Ejiofor — expected #25, drafted #23Cameron Carr — expected #15, drafted #24Sergio de Larrea — expected #32, drafted #25Tarris Reed Jr. — expected #24, drafted #26Chris Cenac Jr. — expected #29, drafted #27Joshua Jefferson — expected #26, drafted #28Alex Karaban — expected #35, drafted #29Koa Peat — expected #28, drafted #30Bruce Thornton — expected #34, drafted #31Richie Saunders — expected #33, drafted #32Isaiah Evans — expected #31, drafted #33Meleek Thomas — expected #27, drafted #34Trevon Brazile — expected #36, drafted #35Baba Miller — expected #38, drafted #36Braden Smith — expected #48, drafted #38Jack Kayil — expected #45, drafted #39JDillon Mitchell — expected #41, drafted #40Otega Oweh — expected #44, drafted #41Ja'Kobi Gillespie — expected #51, drafted #42Tyler Bilodeau — expected #70, drafted #43Maliq Brown — expected #53, drafted #44Emanuel Sharp — expected #46, drafted #45Felix Okpara — expected #54, drafted #46FTyler Nickel — expected #42, drafted #47Tobi Lawal — expected #59, drafted #48Bryce Hopkins — expected #72, drafted #49Jaden Bradley — expected #43, drafted #50Izaiyah Nelson — expected #40, drafted #51Henri Veesaar — expected #30, drafted #52Ugonna Onyenso — expected #39, drafted #53Lajae Jones — expected #68, drafted #54Nick Martinelli — expected #61, drafted #55Jaron Pierre Jr. — expected #76, drafted #58Trey Kaufman-Renn — expected #65, drafted #59
  • Riser — drafted ahead of expectation
  • Faller — drafted later than expected
  • On the board — went about as expected
  • Hover a face for name, position, and expected vs. actual slot.

Pick by Pick

12 R1 OKC Aday Mara C · Michigan #8 range 5–13 ↓ 4
13 R1 MIA Nate Ament F · Tennessee #22 range 10–38 ↑ 9
19 R1 TOR Allen Graves F · Santa Clara University #21 range 9–27 ↑ 2
23 R1 ATL Zuby Ejiofor F · St. John's #25 range 19–34 ↑ 2
24 R1 NYK Cameron Carr G · Baylor #15 range 14–26 ↓ 9
30 R1 DAL Koa Peat F · Arizona #28 range 18–40 ↓ 2
36 R2 Baba Miller F · Cincinnati #38 range 19–41 ↑ 2
37 R2 Ryan Conwell G · Louisville #37 range 23–42 even
38 R2 Braden Smith G · Purdue #48 range 38–58 ↑ 10
41 R2 Otega Oweh SG · Kentucky #44 range 33–60 ↑ 3
44 R2 Maliq Brown B · Duke #53 range 44–62 ↑ 9
48 R2 Tobi Lawal Virginia Tech #59 range 51–66 ↑ 11
49 R2 Bryce Hopkins F · St. John's #72 range 52–91 ↑ 23
54 R2 Lajae Jones Florida State University #68 range 41–98 ↑ 14
60 R2 Malique Lewis Did not play college basketball; played professionally in the NBA G League and Australian NBL. off board

Risers

Drafted furthest ahead of their consensus rank.

4 Lajae Jones expected #68 (41–98) → pick #54 ↑ 14
5 Tobi Lawal expected #59 (51–66) → pick #48 ↑ 11
7 Nate Ament expected #22 (10–38) → pick #13 · MIA ↑ 9
9 Maliq Brown expected #53 (44–62) → pick #44 ↑ 9
10 F Felix Okpara expected #54 (46–59) → pick #46 ↑ 8

Fallers

Drafted furthest past their consensus rank.

4 Cameron Carr expected #15 (14–26) → pick #24 · NYK ↓ 9
9 Aday Mara expected #8 (5–13) → pick #12 · OKC ↓ 4
10 Ebuka Okorie expected #13 (6–23) → pick #17 · OKC ↓ 4

How Predictable Was Each Tier?

Share of picks in each range that landed within their consensus range. The top is chalk; the field spreads out as the draft goes on.

Top 5picks 1–5 100%
Lotterypicks 6–14 89%
Mid 1stpicks 15–30 100%
2nd roundpicks 31–60 78%

Which Boards Read the Room?

Each board scored on how closely its order matched the real thing (order-match, 0–100; 50 = no better than chance).

🎯

Closest board of 2026

Dizzle Dynasty

35 of 51 picks within five slots

97 order match
DraftGuru Consensus benchmark 97

Blending every board scored 97 — ahead of 6 of 7 individual analyst boards.

Individual boards

1 Dizzle Dynasty Board 97
2 No Ceilings Board 96
3 Ersin Demir Mock #1 ✓ 96
4 Assisted Development Board 95
5 Floor and Ceiling Board #1 ✓ 94
6 Prospects & Concepts Board 93
7 Draft Stack Board 91

Order-match = rank correlation between a board's order and the actual draft order, scaled 0–100. Boards sharing fewer than five drafted players are omitted; the consensus is shown as a benchmark, not ranked against analysts.

Measured against the pre-draft consensus blend. Round 1 tonight, Round 2 tomorrow. See the consensus board →